Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday Big Boost for Romney

Mitt Romney accomplished what he needed to on the biggest primary and caucus night of the nomination season.  With more than 400 delegates at stake, Romney won over half, or more than two-to-one over the field.

Most importantly, he battled back in Ohio as he did in Michigan and checked Rick Santorum’s early lead.

Equally significant, Romney came in second in the major states he didn’t win – Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma – affirming he is an acceptable second even where his opponents dominated.

The delegate math is becoming inexorable.  Romney now has 55 percent of the selected delegates and he is a third of the way to the 1,144 he needs for nomination.

Santorum and Newt Gingrich have no plausible theory to win the nomination without completely changing the trends begun in Iowa on January 3 and continuing through last night.  While the two of them may stay in this race, by the current math, Romney should have the nomination by the end of May.

Although Romney hits a bad patch in the remaining events in March, he breaks into some good fertile territory with large states and winner-takes-all events in April and May.

·         Romney 55% of decided delegates
·         Romney 35% of total for nomination
·         End of May, 1,956 delegates voted upon, with many of them “winner-takes-all”

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