Guns
Guns remain a toxic
issue in Colorado. Although Bob Beauprez, Doug Lamborn and Ken Buck survived
attacks over their alleged softness on the issue, there were Republican
primaries won by candidates who highlighted their pure fidelity to gun rights.
Democrats are even
more fearful of the issue given it cost them three state senators. Governor
Hickenlooper’s latest bout of foot in the mouth was directly related to his
effort to lower the temperature on the issue. Good luck. Gun control advocates
just pulled a state ballot initiative banning guns on campuses because its
Democratic allies fear the issue will hurt their candidates in the fall
legislative elections.
“Democrats are doing everything
they can to stay away from it,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Colorado pollster and
political analyst, the Times reports. “To the extent that any advertising from
the gun control forces got out there, I think Udall would be very nervous that
there’s more downside risk than upside.” (Newsmax, Jason Devaney, 6-23-14)
See also Washington Times: Kiss off: Democrats from pro-gun states tell ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords to stay away
Immigration
Immigration was not
an important wedge issue in the Republican primary. Most Republicans are
obviously concerned about border security, but beyond the 100,000 Tancredo
voters, who probably believe all discussions about a path to citizenship is
amnesty, most Republicans recognize something should be done for the good of
the country, all the people involved, but also the party and its candidates.
A poll conducted by
Republican pollsters/consultants last month showed overwhelming support for a
solution. A national poll our firm conducted with Public Opinion Strategies
confirms that, with sufficient protections and conditions, 60 percent of
Republicans accept immigration reform. Even Tom Tancredo avoided the issue as
part of his strategy of lowering his vulnerability and edgy profile.
“The party has gotten into its head, including
Tancredo, that they have got to have a strategy on Hispanics and at the moment,
it’s do nothing wrong. Don’t inflame it,” said Denver-based independent
pollster Floyd Ciruli. “The do-no-harm philosophy has shaped this race, and it’s
hurt Tancredo.” (National Journal, Josh Kraushaar, 6-22-14)
Fracking
The anti-fracking
forces took their first major loss, although it was an election Republican
turnout dominated. But the Colorado November midterm election will look more
like a closely balanced partisan election than the huge Democratic voter turnout
in the President Obama elections of 2008 and 2012.
“The upshot here is the business community is going to be
even less inclined to come up with a compromise. I think their confidence level
is going to go up substantially,” said political observer Floyd Ciruli.
“Number one, they’ve already given up a tremendous amount in
terms of the regulations, and the compromise that was offered is more than they
believe is appropriate. Second, they now believe that they can beat these
folks.”
Even so, Ciruli said
the Loveland vote is probably a better harbinger of how a statewide measure
would fare than November’s anti-fracking votes in left-leaning Boulder,
Broomfield, Fort Collins and Lafayette.
“You obviously have
a much more conservative and probably business-sensitive electorate,” said
Ciruli. “But frankly, that’s probably what the statewide election in November
is going to look like. It is not going to look like Boulder, or even downtown
Fort Collins, it’s going to look a lot more like what just happened in
Loveland.” (Colorado Observer, Valerie Richardson, 6-26-14)
Lamborn
Should Doug Lamborn
start thinking about his next job? When a four-term incumbent only wins by 52
percent among El Paso County Republicans (some Park, Fremont and Chaffee
voters), it appears the job of U.S. congressman may not be the best long-term
career.
No comments:
Post a Comment