The Republican Midterm Advantage

The expected advantage for Republicans in this midterm election is showing up most clearly in the state constitutional offices below the governor, where name identification is low and partisanship is the most important cue for voters.

The entire Republican ticket is leading in a recent Gravis Marketing survey in Colorado by 3 to 4 points (7-8 to 7-10, 1106 voters, ±3, robo). Probably the party’s biggest challenge is libertarian candidates taking 6 to 9 point in close races.

The early snapshots leave a lot of room for campaigning to change the picture, but, as of now, Republicans hold an advantage.